关键词: 煤化工, CO2排放, 情景分析, 碳排放强度

Abstract: Climate change caused by a large number of greenhouse gas emissions has become a global environmental problem. Coal chemical industry as one of the major CO2 emissions industry, it’s CO2 emissions of 2015 accounted for about 4.1% of China. So it’s essential to study the carbon reduction of coal chemical industry for achieve country’s goal about 40~45%. CO2 emissions is accounted based on the commonly used methods and elected the measured emission factor of coal chemical industry in 2005~2015.Then, three kinds of development scenarios were set up used scenarios analysis,the carbon emissions and intensity of the coal chemical industry in 2020 is predicted by adjusting the product structure. The results show that the CO2 emissions of coal chemical industry increased by 8.12% in 2005~2015;With first, second, third scenario, CO2 emissions and intensity increased in turn; Only first scenario reduction potential is positive, second and third scenario are all negative in 2020.The research indicating that only the product structure was adjusted ,the potential of coal chemical industry could not be improved. So, we need to combine various mitigation measures,such as improving energy efficeny, increasing the ratio of clean technology and match carbonization technology to enhance reduction potential.